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[Music]

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[Applause]

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Thank You Jen and thank you all for

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sticking around when you would probably

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rather be eating lunch by now so I'm not

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gonna pretend that I'm never enough to

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know which is the best ocean world to go

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and study to find life in our heat in

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the next human generation but if you can

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pair up my age to the demographic of

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most by presenters you realize I have

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less time to spare than most of you so

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I'm really getting quite antsy about it

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and so that's really the motivation for

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what I'm gonna talk about today is a new

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five-year program that we were having

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funded through the NASA Astrobiology

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program and it's gonna be a big

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collaboration I'm introducing and all

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these really clever people down the

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bottom here are all the people have

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tricked into playing along with me and

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standing next to them I'm hoping I'm

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gonna look really good so that's

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basically what we're about and it's

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really trying to come up with trying to

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be planetary agnostic so rather than

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consider one planet at a time and work

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out how would you actually fit the data

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to make it look like a really compelling

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target would be to start the other way

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around and say okay how about we just

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start with a blank slate and just say

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taking the kinds of stuff that we know

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about let's assume you're not going to

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defy the laws of physics chemistry

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geology and and what we know about

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biology and how it could potentially

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work elsewhere are there places we could

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actually go to or how would we come up

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with some value judgments on a

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like-for-like basis that would actually

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allow us to say well which ocean worlds

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and with which measurements would

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provide us with the highest probability

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to actually come up with a successful

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approach to go in search for life and so

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to actually get beyond that first

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question I think there's two really

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important concepts come up with this is

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thinking about not just about can it

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help kind of planet host life but it

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could a NASA mission or anybody else's

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mission for that matter go out and

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actually search for that life and come

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back with the compelling evidence that

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we want so it's basically two components

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to this then there's the biological

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potential which is could Planet X

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actually host life in the first place or

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to what extent could it host that life

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because it isn't just an binary thing

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this isn't just a is it plausible is it

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credible we're trying to go beyond that

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binary thing of yeah okay maybe this one

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could have life or this one looks deaky

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I'm promising it would actually be

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what's the probability function the kind

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of stuff we were hearing about on the

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plenary this morning of the probability

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of finding life but then the second part

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is

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even then even if you've got an ocean

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world that's probably teeming with life

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if it's gonna hold it away and keep it

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secret and make it impossible for us to

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actually find it that's a whole other

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issue as well so that's the second part

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of how you'd make those value judgments

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is not just the the potential to

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actually host life but then the

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potential to reveal that evidence of

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life to the kinds of missions that we

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could imagine actually being able to

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field in the future and so the way we

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want to do that then is basically we've

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come up with a three-fold approach and

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the first part was actually going you

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know my background is more in the ocean

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sciences than in astrobiology so a first

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starting point that we could contribute

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was go and work out how do we harness as

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many of the smartest people that I've

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met over the last thirty years of my

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career in ocean sciences and make sure

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we're actually folding all that

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information into what we do next but

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then the second part is saying okay but

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a bunch of oceanographers wandering in

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and stumbling around the field of

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astrobiology uninformed could cause an

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awful lot of damage and not necessarily

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be very helpful so how do we actually

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make sure that we have these people at

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every stage of the way in lockstep with

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planetary scientists who actually can

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turn around and tell us well that can't

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possibly work on Planet X or Planet Z or

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Planet Alpha because there's these other

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things going on that we do know we don't

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know huge amounts about other planets

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compared to what we know about our own

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planet than the system and how it works

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as an integrated system but there are

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some basic things that we do know so

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there's some things we can't violate and

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so we have to have that right and then

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the third part is what we've recognized

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is the team we pull together to actually

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put this proposal together we have to

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love each other dearly and trust each

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other dearly because we're going to be

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hammering on each other intellectually

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non-stop for the next five years so

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we're going to be basically going out of

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our way to make album make ourselves

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uncomfortable and so as we've chosen

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that it's meant we've actually chosen

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quite a select tight-knit group of who

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the pis are gonna be and then the danger

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there is that you a leus everything you

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do because you've just got some people's

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locked-in prejudices they bring to the

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system so this is only gonna work if you

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guys work with us as well that this

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program is designed as well throughout

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to be community led as well or community

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influenced so we want to basically make

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sure that every step of the way

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we embrace as much as possible of the

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so let's get on to the the naive

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oversimplification part of things over

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about six months as we developed the

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proposal a dozen of us sat with a a

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virtual whiteboard and we hammered on

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what are all the processes that you

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could imagine happening generically on a

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template ocean world and what are all

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the issues you might have we came up

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with a cartoon impression of well this

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is what could be happening just for the

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physics of an ocean world and then on

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top of that we layered on what could

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then be happening in terms of the

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geochemistry that would be begat by

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those physical processes and then from

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that what are the kinds of potential

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metabolisms that might be available for

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microbial activity and where might all

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those things be and then by a deft

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sleight of hand we worked out that we

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could actually reduce that back to this

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little Wi-Fi icon of here or at the key

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six different investigations and what

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their interconnections might be and so

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we have people with expertise at the

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center of each of these different

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investigations but really where the real

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juice and flavor is going to come from

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this meeting is probably gonna be more

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of those interconnections at the

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interfaces of where these things were

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all hive together but what I'm gonna do

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now is just run you through the core

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elements of what those different

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components are gonna be so the first

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part starting so this is I remember

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we're thinking about ocean worlds so

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this is where my version of habitability

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is not the same as haven't had liquid

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water on the surface of a planet

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so although that's that's one version of

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habitability mine includes

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chemosynthesis because I've spent the

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last 30 years studying that kind of

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stuff so I know it's a thing and I can't

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raise that part of my brain so so we're

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going to start from the bottom up and so

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the idea then is what might be happening

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to you physically what would it take for

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any given planet to either have or not

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have internal differentiation processes

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and if that resulted there are some

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important things that might come out of

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that one might be what's the thermal

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flux that's available to drive any kind

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of sea water circulation another one

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might be what are the processes that

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might actually produce topography on the

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sea floor our planets you know because

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we have lack data we tend to draw

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radially symmetric cross-sections of

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ocean worlds

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and it's vanishingly unlikely that

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that's true and it's really really

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important that we don't suppress that

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stuff which is actually true of our own

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ocean circulation models I'll come back

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to that later on so this is just one

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example of priests off so tans work some

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of the work he's been working on he's

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one of the PI's on on our project and so

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this is some of these most recent work

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thinking about Enceladus is just an

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example of the fact of this is this

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isn't to say Enceladus is definitely one

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of the things that's going to be really

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compelling but it embraces like the the

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philosophy of the diversity of

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geophysical process that might be

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happening on the planetary interior

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which we need to accommodate before we

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go any further a second thing is we've

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talked about hydrothermal activity and

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there's the stuff that I've worked on in

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all of my career is actually exploring

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for different kinds of deep sea

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hydrothermal activity and trying to

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prove that there isn't anywhere you can

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go and if you search correctly you can't

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find it I think I was a triple negative

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sorry but anyway if you're thinking our

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hydrothermal activity and you're

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thinking of a black smokers stop please

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and if you're thinking of hydrothermal

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activity you think the lost city stomp

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please there's probably the kinds of

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diffuse flow or the kinds of important

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fluid flow that our planet present on

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other planets may be completely

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different from anything we've seen and

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the majority of fluid flow on our own

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planet is probably completely different

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from anything you've ever seen on

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National Geographic television either so

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for example here's a cross-section from

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a cartoon of Andy Fisher's he's another

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one of our Co eyes from UC Santa Cruz

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who works on where most of the fluid

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flow happens on our planet and it's at

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very low temperatures its massive

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integration in terms of physics and heat

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of volume but it's not the most

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spectacular stuff that makes for good

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television videos so that's probably not

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the stuff you should be thinking about

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and an example of how unpromising a

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planet can be and it might still host

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seafloor fluid flow is one of the things

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we've actually realized as our

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discussions was if you took the moon and

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nobody really thinks of the moon has

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been geologically active our Moon if you

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put two miles of water on top of it

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right now you would not be able to stop

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fluid flow happening because of the

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pre-existing topography so basically if

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the moon can have seafloor fluid flow

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then it suddenly makes you realize

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hopefully that philosophically just

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about any planet no matter how boring

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you think it might be might still be

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able to host reactions that could

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produce water rock interactions and

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geochemical results

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another one of the prejudices I want you

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to leave at the door is that you

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actually think you know where the best

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geochemical reactions are going to come

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from that yield the most energy this is

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some very recent work from Everett

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shocks imminent graduate student Tucker

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Ellie's about to graduate and so these

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two plots on the left-hand side is

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showing you what happens if you take all

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the world's mid-ocean ridge resorts and

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so this is a very earth-based study he's

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been doing and showing you how exciting

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or how unexpected the results can be it

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turns out if you want the maximum energy

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yield for this reaction up at the top

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here from oh sorry let me go back that

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isn't the laser pointer that's the

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pointer so if you want the maximum

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energy you can get from that it turns

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out the most important thing in a redox

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active bit of rock is actually the

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aluminum concentration who knew that

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hands up if you already knew that okay

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Julie said the same talk before first

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hand from Everett and then the right

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hand side is then saying okay well then

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if you take that what's theoretically

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available geologically in terms of an

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abiotic organic reaction and how could

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that be harnessed into microbiology then

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the second part that comes into this is

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you can't just think about what the rock

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is you have to think about what the

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seawater concentrations are going to be

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and what the Seaboard of composition is

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going to be that you're interacting with

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and so that's the second half there that

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then the gray shaded field show you that

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even if you had all the best rocks in

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the world and you wanted to be able to

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generate what the this the fluid might

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be of the water rock reaction happening

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beneath the sea floor that the actual

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energy yield that's available as you

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then become going to the redox reactions

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that come up when you let that stuff

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then erupt back into the ocean that's

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out of equilibrium with is also going to

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be regulated by the composition of the

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ocean that it emerges into modeling is

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cheap so that's the idea is the Thira

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core modeling we can run millions of

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these calculations over the first phases

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of this program but we're also planning

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to back it up with a bunch of

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experimental work in the laboratory this

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can be both testing the the water rock

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reaction stuff under geochemical

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laboratories but then also actually

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testing with model organisms what the

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microbial yields might be of at

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different metabolisms as we identify

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what chemicals might be available on

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what's on the menu for lunch

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then we can actually turn around and

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three different microbes and actually do

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microbial experiments as well to see to

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what extent those different metabolisms

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get exploited

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so we have a parallel program of the

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experiments we're gonna be doing there

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that all gets us about as far as

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understanding the biological potential

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we then have to go on to the bio

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signature potential for the same system

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and part of that becomes worth how would

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the ocean circulate on an ocean world

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and here again we're trying to actually

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bring together two different length

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scales of basically this is a bun as a

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line of weakness in how we understand

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our own ocean circulation that most

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global circulation models for our own

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planet and this is the we're using

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working with John Marshall from MIT who

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runs the the three dimensional global

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circulation model for Earth one of the

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top-of-the-range model to get used for

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that it's completely devoid of seafloor

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topography even though we know seafloor

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topography is really important for

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mixing so it turns out John's actually

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made a bit of a start on this because

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he's actually been starting thinking

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about this he was very much a climate

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modeler he's been interested in snowball

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earth what was happening 700 million

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years ago so we already have some

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preliminary models of what would happen

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in a completely ice-covered Earth's

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ocean where you have an isothermal

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surface when you have the ice water

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interface everywhere and so circulation

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is driven primarily by by Helin

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circulation rather than thermohaline

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circulation that it's basically Brian

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exclusion would actually be driving

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global scale convection because that's

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one end member although another one

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could be if there's geothermal energy

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from below that's driving the

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circulations that's that kind of

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parameter space but then we're also

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gonna be working with andreas turn her

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from Lamont who's gonna be putting some

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honesty into that stuff he spends a lot

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of time thinking about how to apocrypha

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shaped circulation on local scale

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processes both in terms of ice water

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interface and at the seafloor so that's

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what the couple of examples are here

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there's a plan view of work down in

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Antarctica of ice water rocking or

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seafloor interactions and then also the

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larger scale of fracture zones the fact

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that there are lumps on the seafloor

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even if they're not volcanically active

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today the last of the investigations is

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tending to be looking at the

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biogeochemical fate of materials in the

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oceans and then I think one of the

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cleverest slights of hand in our

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proposal or I think that's really quite

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00:12:54,540 --> 00:12:52,090
elegant is the idea that particulate

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material in Earth's oceans biogenic

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particulate material and mineral

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particulate material has already pre

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concentrated interesting stories for us

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that compared to going up filtering

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large volumes of seawater and seeing

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00:13:06,900 --> 00:13:05,440
what's dissolved in the seawater

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actually the mineral materials can

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actually tell you something about the

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00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:09,010
processes that are already been

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happening in that ocean and they also

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have the potential to survive the stuff

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00:13:16,110 --> 00:13:14,530
I picked up from Europa Lander report

424
00:13:17,550 --> 00:13:16,120
was the idea that if you wanted to go

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and grind up your seawater and melt it

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00:13:20,820 --> 00:13:19,480
and filter it then you've been a good

427
00:13:23,460 --> 00:13:20,830
shape to actually go and look at some

428
00:13:25,530 --> 00:13:23,470
stuff and then of course if you're

429
00:13:26,850 --> 00:13:25,540
thinking about places like Europa then

430
00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:26,860
there's also what's the fate of that

431
00:13:30,060 --> 00:13:28,570
stuff once it gets out onto the surface

432
00:13:31,740 --> 00:13:30,070
and how would it survive in a radiation

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00:13:32,820 --> 00:13:31,750
that if you had a mission that was

434
00:13:34,470 --> 00:13:32,830
actually just gonna go and scrape the

435
00:13:36,060 --> 00:13:34,480
surface and look at stuff how would that

436
00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:36,070
have been modified compared to whatever

437
00:13:41,130 --> 00:13:37,450
it was like when it left the pristine

438
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:41,140
ocean sometime over the way we're gonna

439
00:13:44,610 --> 00:13:42,610
synthesize the whole thing and pull it

440
00:13:45,900 --> 00:13:44,620
all together but just to wrap up I want

441
00:13:47,730 --> 00:13:45,910
to show you that basically this is where

442
00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:47,740
you guys get involve basically what we

443
00:13:52,260 --> 00:13:50,290
have is three phases over 18 months each

444
00:13:53,490 --> 00:13:52,270
over the next year and a half we're

445
00:13:55,260 --> 00:13:53,500
basically going to go away and try and

446
00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:55,270
put together a conceptual model of how

447
00:13:57,990 --> 00:13:56,770
all those different parts would link

448
00:13:59,610 --> 00:13:58,000
together and then we want to bring that

449
00:14:00,780 --> 00:13:59,620
back to a community workshop and you can

450
00:14:02,220 --> 00:14:00,790
all beat the hell out of us and tell us

451
00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:02,230
what we've missed and what's missing and

452
00:14:05,430 --> 00:14:04,090
then once we've done that then we'll go

453
00:14:07,380 --> 00:14:05,440
and work out how to parameterize that

454
00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:07,390
and turn that into a forward model that

455
00:14:10,470 --> 00:14:08,530
can make millions and millions of

456
00:14:12,900 --> 00:14:10,480
forward calculations that'll be the

457
00:14:14,340 --> 00:14:12,910
second 18-month phase and then the third

458
00:14:16,140 --> 00:14:14,350
part which is the really critical part

459
00:14:18,830 --> 00:14:16,150
is how do we do the sensitivity analysis

460
00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:18,840
we can make billions of predictions

461
00:14:24,420 --> 00:14:22,210
based on no knowledge whatsoever but

462
00:14:25,890 --> 00:14:24,430
just like a flicker roll of the dice I

463
00:14:27,660 --> 00:14:25,900
will predict that most of those

464
00:14:29,070 --> 00:14:27,670
different combinations of parameter

465
00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:29,080
space will come out looking really

466
00:14:32,700 --> 00:14:31,090
barren and boring and unproductive and

467
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:32,710
they'll be a tiny subset will be the

468
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:34,450
places that actually tell us whether

469
00:14:38,580 --> 00:14:36,370
we're the juicy results might come from

470
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:38,590
and if we can get all that done in the

471
00:14:41,430 --> 00:14:39,970
next four and a half years that'll give

472
00:14:42,810 --> 00:14:41,440
us six more months to actually prepare a

473
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:42,820
lookup table for the Europa clipper

474
00:14:46,500 --> 00:14:44,170
mission or we can be nice and mass

475
00:14:47,910 --> 00:14:46,510
irrelevant so that's really and the

476
00:14:49,650 --> 00:14:47,920
mechanism we actually want to do for all

477
00:14:51,030 --> 00:14:49,660
of that is through this new network for

478
00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:51,040
ocean world so if you come along this

479
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:52,930
evening to the town hall Allison Murray

480
00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:54,730
is a co-lead of that with me and Alisa

481
00:15:00,600 --> 00:14:55,930
Roden will be there to tell you all

482
00:15:01,530 --> 00:15:00,610
about that okay thank you very much